DOI: -

Keywords: Land Change Modeler, Landuse Transport System, Residential Area, Land Use and Transport System, Kawasan Permukiman, Metropolitan

ABSTRACT

Padang City, one of the major cities on the island of Sumatra, is being prepared to become a metropolitan city between 2023 and 2043. The status and functional role of Padang City require special attention in controlling and utilizing space to address ongoing issues such as population growth and distribution (urbanization) and land use conversion, which may not be ideal for the region's physical and environmental conditions. Therefore, this research is conducted as a preventive measure aimed at modeling residential land use in response to population growth in Padang City as it progresses toward becoming a metropolitan city by 2043. The study employs methods such as population projection analysis, land capability assessment, supervised classification, land change modeling, and spatial analysis. The research findings estimate that Padang City will achieve metropolitan status within the next ten years, with significant increases in built-up land expected to spread beyond the city's core. Koto Tangah District is identified as the area with the greatest potential to support and accommodate the population growth, preparing Padang City for its metropolitan future by 2043.